5 mobile trends to watch in 2011

 

The WMC in Barcelona has a strong focus on technology. A lot of the media buzz generated is based on what's technically possible, and not entirely on what businesses and consumers are actually looking for. 

However, the WMC is always a good moment to look at what the tech-guys think is important and map that to what the market is willing to accept, or, in some cases, already embracing.

I would like to take this opportunity to present four trends that will shape mobile technologies over the next few months in 2011.

The Android in Apple's eye

Android's market share is growing faster than Apple. It has surpassed Symbian to become the runner-up in the smart phone space in terms of market share. This is great news, or is it? 

A great many players in the market will not admit this easily but Android is also quickly becoming as fragmented as Symbian. Why? Well, Android is an Open Standard. Manufacturers are not obliged to keep the OS 'as is'. They can freely add, adapt and optimize modules in the OS. If they are nice and play the game correctly, they'll document it for the wider developer audience. If not well, good luck with the testing phase of your app on their devices!

App developers are only beginning to scratch the surface of the problems we will see emerging from this trend. We are already seeing a number of brand related Android camps popping up that require just a few, but still substantial, changes to ensure full compatibility. Also remember, this is the situation today, where Android is still in its infancy. 

Also it seems that in 2010 the Android App Store generated $ 102 M, where Apple's AppStore generated $ 1.7 billion. The demand for Android apps is primarily driven by brands wanting to expand to Android. But for developers purely developing for revenues, the AppStore is still a much more interesting and sure-fire revenue source. (source: Techcrunch.com)

That said, the Apple model is beginning to irritate quite a few big brand names in the industry. As we recently discovered for one of our big clients in the luxury sector, an app can pass the first review and be refused in the second and then, without much change, is accepted in the third round. 

Not only did it take a week for this minor bug fix release to be picked up by Apple for review, but this bug fix version was refused for a feature that had not changed since the first release. The week of total radio silence following that refusal, despite our attempts to get a better understanding of how we could fix it, is utterly frustrating for both the brand and ourselves as a supplier. 

The risk that this presents for brands, whose campaigns and PR machines needs months of preparation to accompany the launch of an app, is substantial.

Now that Apple has also tightened the control on subscriptions, it starts to arouse attention from market watch dogs and investors alike.  

In a nutshell, we're happy with the pressure that Android will ultimately put on Apple, but we also hope that manufacturers will see the value in a more united and cross-compatible Android OS, so that it can become a serious competitor for Apple.

Applying html 5

Mobile sites will grow in importance as the 'one solution covers all smart phones' option. Thanks to the enhanced usability features html 5 will allow a nifty and 'close to an app' like user experience. This is especially important to players that need broad support such as eBay, Amazon and the larger consumer brands in general. Not only does html do away with most of the Apple certification misery, but it will also make an app-like experience scalable across a multitude of devices. This can be achieved with the same budget as one application for one platform.

This will certainly go down well with the marketing and IT departments of big brands.

Any downsides? html5 will certainly not allow the same seamless integration of phone features, limiting its scope to services and campaigns that are more in line with 'classic' websites.

Also the dependence on a data connection to make the app work can be a serious User Experience set-back in densely populated areas, particularly where Edge rules over 3G, or in remote areas where no-coverage replaces slow-coverage. 

There's also no best-in-class html browser yet that works across the majority of the smart phones. The big question is, will there be one soon? Or will we be looking at the same 4-players that we currently have on the PC?

Despite all these potential setbacks, the budget argument remains a strong driver. There are already a few sophisticated html5 sites out there, and, judging by the need of brands to maximize both reach and user experience, quite a few will follow soon.

If you would like to see an example of a mobile site with app lay-out - in French and only on your mobile - please visit: mobile.bnpparibas.net

Let's Facebook it!

The rise of 0.facebook.com as a free of charge Facebook version, available through operators in certain countries has gone fairly unnoticed. But rest assured that the young and price sensitive know all about it. Insignificant as it seems it is another nail in the coffin of subscription based web access. Facebook is essentially 'paying' for your access in exchange for your attention, banking on the willingness of advertisers to pay for a share of that attention. This represents a major shift in the business models that have ruled the mobile and internet networks until now.

The next building block is also just around the corner. Facebook is adamant about anchoring mobile deeply into its users' lifestyle, so much so that we will soon see a number of deeply integrated Facebook phones coming to market this year.

The opportunities for brands are numerous in terms of getting a share of attention that previously was accessible via 'classic' channels, such as television, radio and street advertising. 

The question remains though whether Facebook is the right answer for all circumstances. It seems Facebook would like to become a 'one-stop-shop' solution for all marketing needs. They certainly have a massive audience and a massive share of the attention. How they will explore this and help advertisers target this audience remains the unexplained holy grail thus far. Yet Facebook will unmistakably grow in importance, and particularly on mobile. 

And Now For Cash

The acceptance by big players, including allegedly the iPhone5, of the NFC technology will push mobile payments into the spotlight in 2011. Great! It will add another highly significant dimension to the use of mobile in everyone's daily life. But what is so exciting about it, apart from the fact that we will lose the loose change in our pockets? Comfort is one. Being able to pay and check your account balance on your phone sounds like a great feature to me. Some users will wonder about security. If you're phone's stolen, someone else can use it to pay with it right? Yes if you have a credit on your phone for NFC payments this person can 'abuse' your credit. BUT, he or she is then also stupid enough to run a risk of being tracked and traced. On top of that, if you're fast enough to discover your loss you can cancel your credit via a website or by placing a phone call, so that the credit on your NFC chip will become instantly unusable.


But there's one other major advantage that marketing and brand managers will like. They can now track and trace, anonymously of course, the location and time of payments for their products through the point of sales systems. This will provide valuable insights in where and when your products or services are being purchased.




Tab into it

So you still look down on the Tablet computer, right? Wrong! Apple had to ramp up the iPad production within 3 quarters after launch and sold five times the amount of iPhones world wide. What is the reason for this, you might wonder? Well it appears that the iPad is actually more than a couch potato's toy. It is quickly developing into what a pair of pliers is for a plumber; an easy to carry tool that does 80% of the job. And that goes well beyond the obvious application, the iPad as a sales tool. The iPad is a great device for educational purposes, for medical sales reps and doctors, for architects, for restaurants (think interactive wine list) and well, the list becomes longer and longer. 

So Apple's announcement that the iPad2 is available as of March is an exciting impulse for the tablet market. Unsurprisingly a lot of iPad1's now appear on eBay while Apple has also dropped the prices of the 'old' iPad. On top of that Steve Jobs presented the iPad2 himself and looked less fragile than before.  

Whatever happens with tablets, it will be a sweet pill to swallow.