Phones with a silver lining

Today we might be mulling over which OS will prevail and why. But operators are building faster and better realtime wireless connections and the question now is, what will become of the phone once we have reliable always-on broadband internet in a few years from now with speeds that are comparable to fast wired broadband today?

the Unliquited by Samsung

Source: walyou.com > http://bit.ly/hINPrM

We might be oblivious today to the fact that 20 years ago internet still required a dial-up modem. Speeds we're indicated in kBps and connections were primarily a-synchronous. 'Always-on' was on nobody's radar. Today we might complain about bad voice connection when calling from a mobile phone and about the fact that you are 'degraded' to an Edge connection from 3G when you are in very busy areas. But this is changing ehr well, fast.


Extrapolating the past to the future we will have wireless mobile internet at above 3G speeds even when flying. And in a few years from now we'll have that against flat rates that will not surpass our current landline phone bills...


Let that sink in for a minute. This means that having access to cloud based services will become a commodity. Now let's think one step further... Last year the so called Netbook was hot. Although the enthusiasm has subdued a bit, there is still much to like about a computer that doesn't do much more than providing you with a powerful access to services that live on the web, or actually in the cloud.


From there it will be a matter of time before we'll have phone software that lives in the cloud. A phone that we access from any device that offers highspeed broadband internet. After identification we can use 'our' phone over an internet connection anywhere, taking away the headache caused by  OS upgrades and phone content back-ups. Sounds weird? Just look at SAAS models eating into the space previously owned by Microsoft Office at a steady speed. 


What this will do to the business of phone manufacturers is still anybody's guess. It will sure be a different business model for the likes of Nokia, HTC and Samsung, not to mention Apple. Looking at the speed of developments however I am sure that it will not be a matter of IF but more when.

5 mobile trends to watch in 2011

 

The WMC in Barcelona has a strong focus on technology. A lot of the media buzz generated is based on what's technically possible, and not entirely on what businesses and consumers are actually looking for. 

However, the WMC is always a good moment to look at what the tech-guys think is important and map that to what the market is willing to accept, or, in some cases, already embracing.

I would like to take this opportunity to present four trends that will shape mobile technologies over the next few months in 2011.

The Android in Apple's eye

Android's market share is growing faster than Apple. It has surpassed Symbian to become the runner-up in the smart phone space in terms of market share. This is great news, or is it? 

A great many players in the market will not admit this easily but Android is also quickly becoming as fragmented as Symbian. Why? Well, Android is an Open Standard. Manufacturers are not obliged to keep the OS 'as is'. They can freely add, adapt and optimize modules in the OS. If they are nice and play the game correctly, they'll document it for the wider developer audience. If not well, good luck with the testing phase of your app on their devices!

App developers are only beginning to scratch the surface of the problems we will see emerging from this trend. We are already seeing a number of brand related Android camps popping up that require just a few, but still substantial, changes to ensure full compatibility. Also remember, this is the situation today, where Android is still in its infancy. 

Also it seems that in 2010 the Android App Store generated $ 102 M, where Apple's AppStore generated $ 1.7 billion. The demand for Android apps is primarily driven by brands wanting to expand to Android. But for developers purely developing for revenues, the AppStore is still a much more interesting and sure-fire revenue source. (source: Techcrunch.com)

That said, the Apple model is beginning to irritate quite a few big brand names in the industry. As we recently discovered for one of our big clients in the luxury sector, an app can pass the first review and be refused in the second and then, without much change, is accepted in the third round. 

Not only did it take a week for this minor bug fix release to be picked up by Apple for review, but this bug fix version was refused for a feature that had not changed since the first release. The week of total radio silence following that refusal, despite our attempts to get a better understanding of how we could fix it, is utterly frustrating for both the brand and ourselves as a supplier. 

The risk that this presents for brands, whose campaigns and PR machines needs months of preparation to accompany the launch of an app, is substantial.

Now that Apple has also tightened the control on subscriptions, it starts to arouse attention from market watch dogs and investors alike.  

In a nutshell, we're happy with the pressure that Android will ultimately put on Apple, but we also hope that manufacturers will see the value in a more united and cross-compatible Android OS, so that it can become a serious competitor for Apple.

Applying html 5

Mobile sites will grow in importance as the 'one solution covers all smart phones' option. Thanks to the enhanced usability features html 5 will allow a nifty and 'close to an app' like user experience. This is especially important to players that need broad support such as eBay, Amazon and the larger consumer brands in general. Not only does html do away with most of the Apple certification misery, but it will also make an app-like experience scalable across a multitude of devices. This can be achieved with the same budget as one application for one platform.

This will certainly go down well with the marketing and IT departments of big brands.

Any downsides? html5 will certainly not allow the same seamless integration of phone features, limiting its scope to services and campaigns that are more in line with 'classic' websites.

Also the dependence on a data connection to make the app work can be a serious User Experience set-back in densely populated areas, particularly where Edge rules over 3G, or in remote areas where no-coverage replaces slow-coverage. 

There's also no best-in-class html browser yet that works across the majority of the smart phones. The big question is, will there be one soon? Or will we be looking at the same 4-players that we currently have on the PC?

Despite all these potential setbacks, the budget argument remains a strong driver. There are already a few sophisticated html5 sites out there, and, judging by the need of brands to maximize both reach and user experience, quite a few will follow soon.

If you would like to see an example of a mobile site with app lay-out - in French and only on your mobile - please visit: mobile.bnpparibas.net

Let's Facebook it!

The rise of 0.facebook.com as a free of charge Facebook version, available through operators in certain countries has gone fairly unnoticed. But rest assured that the young and price sensitive know all about it. Insignificant as it seems it is another nail in the coffin of subscription based web access. Facebook is essentially 'paying' for your access in exchange for your attention, banking on the willingness of advertisers to pay for a share of that attention. This represents a major shift in the business models that have ruled the mobile and internet networks until now.

The next building block is also just around the corner. Facebook is adamant about anchoring mobile deeply into its users' lifestyle, so much so that we will soon see a number of deeply integrated Facebook phones coming to market this year.

The opportunities for brands are numerous in terms of getting a share of attention that previously was accessible via 'classic' channels, such as television, radio and street advertising. 

The question remains though whether Facebook is the right answer for all circumstances. It seems Facebook would like to become a 'one-stop-shop' solution for all marketing needs. They certainly have a massive audience and a massive share of the attention. How they will explore this and help advertisers target this audience remains the unexplained holy grail thus far. Yet Facebook will unmistakably grow in importance, and particularly on mobile. 

And Now For Cash

The acceptance by big players, including allegedly the iPhone5, of the NFC technology will push mobile payments into the spotlight in 2011. Great! It will add another highly significant dimension to the use of mobile in everyone's daily life. But what is so exciting about it, apart from the fact that we will lose the loose change in our pockets? Comfort is one. Being able to pay and check your account balance on your phone sounds like a great feature to me. Some users will wonder about security. If you're phone's stolen, someone else can use it to pay with it right? Yes if you have a credit on your phone for NFC payments this person can 'abuse' your credit. BUT, he or she is then also stupid enough to run a risk of being tracked and traced. On top of that, if you're fast enough to discover your loss you can cancel your credit via a website or by placing a phone call, so that the credit on your NFC chip will become instantly unusable.


But there's one other major advantage that marketing and brand managers will like. They can now track and trace, anonymously of course, the location and time of payments for their products through the point of sales systems. This will provide valuable insights in where and when your products or services are being purchased.




Tab into it

So you still look down on the Tablet computer, right? Wrong! Apple had to ramp up the iPad production within 3 quarters after launch and sold five times the amount of iPhones world wide. What is the reason for this, you might wonder? Well it appears that the iPad is actually more than a couch potato's toy. It is quickly developing into what a pair of pliers is for a plumber; an easy to carry tool that does 80% of the job. And that goes well beyond the obvious application, the iPad as a sales tool. The iPad is a great device for educational purposes, for medical sales reps and doctors, for architects, for restaurants (think interactive wine list) and well, the list becomes longer and longer. 

So Apple's announcement that the iPad2 is available as of March is an exciting impulse for the tablet market. Unsurprisingly a lot of iPad1's now appear on eBay while Apple has also dropped the prices of the 'old' iPad. On top of that Steve Jobs presented the iPad2 himself and looked less fragile than before.  

Whatever happens with tablets, it will be a sweet pill to swallow.

Is Apple sustainable?

Now that Steve Jobs has handed over the CEO role to his successor - Tim Cook - the question everyone is asks is 'will Apple be able to sustain its momentum?' This question is being echoed around the world and a multitude of answers and POV's have popped up everywhere. At the risk of being redundant I would still like to add another POV to this.

The impact of Apple on mobile today is almost beyond believe. The iPhenomenon has taken the mobile, media, music and PC industry by storm. As an example, Apple did only enter the mobile phone area less than 4 years ago. In a ridiculously short time span of 2 years, they redefined the whole mobile phone user experience. In less than 6 years they've single-handedly created the only major revenue stream for musicians and record labels in the digital space. They're now repeating this for the movie industry with the iPad and all of this through one single point of commerce contact... iTunes.

What started out as clunky iPods and a very basic version of iTunes has grown so drastically over the past several years that Apple is now the world's second largest company in terms of market capitalization, after Exxon.

The impact on us in terms of mobile services and marketing agencies has been tremendous. Applications have become a mainstay in todays mobile marketing. Mobile sites are more relevant than ever in regards to marketing purposes. Apple MUST have inspired Google to introduce Android and has certainly turned up the heat on Nokia to temperatures that even the sauna-loving Finns find unbearable.

So whether you like Apple or not, its a player you cannot avoid when you're in the mobile and/or mobile marketing arena.

From a business point of view, creating a sustainable business is beyond doubt one of the biggest possible achievements. Popular reads like 'Good to Great' and 'Built to Last' provide insights in a variety of Fortune 500 companies that got it right. IBM, HP and General Electric are among them. They've been around for decades if not more than a century. During their existence they've weathered a great many changes, crises and challenges. Some, like Nokia, have changed their core business completely, where others have stayed closer to the intentions of their founders. But in general, the majority of businesses cease to continue operating, or are acquired, absorbed and forgotten.

The question is, what makes these businesses sustainable and why have they survived? Is it a question of adaptation or goal setting or just luck? How do you ensure that a business model evolves over time?

Although a great many explanations have been given there is one simple thing that regroups most of the reasons why a business would survive; vision and a mission.

While a vision is about is providing a perspective and direction, the mission is about what a company really would like to achieve for its customers. The vision is needed to see changes coming and innovate products & services before the competition does. It is at times also about disruptive change for which great business leadership is necessary. For example. when IBM decided to pull out of PC and lap top production, selling it to Chinese Lenovo. In hindsight this has not harmed IBM at all. It must have generated heated debates internally at IBM though before they managed to take that step.

Now what about Apple? Innovation based on visionary thinking? Tick. Disruptive change? Tick.But what about Apple's mission? Now here is where it gets interesting.

It might be clear from what Apple has done so far that they had a vision and that there was enough leadership to drive disruptive change. Beyond doubt Steve Jobs has played an all important if not determining role in defining the projects. He must have based this on some form of vision that included driving disruptive change in the market. This surely must have been part of his greater plan.

But when I started searching for an Apple mission statement I quickly found out that there is none. So, I ask you, is this bad?

The thing is, without a mission statement it can quickly become unclear for future employees of Apple what the brand stands for. How do you transfer the 'meaning of a company's life' to the next generation?

A mission statement can of course not be disconnected from a vision. If one knows what the company's going concern is because there's a clear mission statement, then a vision is needed to at least guide its resources into the right direction. Now as much as we all agree that Steve Jobs is a visionary leader, I struggle to find proof of how he communicates his vision, other than through releasing great products and services under the Apple brand. What matters in all of this is the closed character of Apple's products, its brilliant user interface design and the perfect integration of iPhone's, iPads, applications, music, iTunes and basically everything they produce. Take the notification for example that shows up on your iPhone when there's an update available, for one or more apps on your device. 90% of the users update their apps instaneously. The marketing and customer relationship implications of this feature on its own are enormous.

The question remains however, how much of Steve's brilliancy is transferable and how will this affect Apple's sustainability? I have nagging doubts about this and I am sure I'm not alone in this.

Don't get me wrong here though. I am not saying that Apple is about to go away any time soon. The trouble though is that they've had a 'Job-less' period where they completely lost the plot and quickly fell into the trap of producing shortsighted evolutions of existing products.

Apple will be able to leverage its current product range for quite a while longer, churning out fine revolutionized versions of the iPhone, iPad and all their computer variations. But what if higher resolution displays, faster processors, more memory and a slicker UI run out of steam?

Apple, being what it is, with its tendency for secrecy and total control, has not yet reassured its shareholders that it can transfer its core values and competitive edge to a future generation of managers and leaders.

Why I find this important against the background of mobile and iconmobile's own core-business values is that somehow it shows that there's an opportunity for existing players in the market to analyze Apple in detail. Maybe there's a mission statement and a vision that can be derived from which consumers and businesses alike can benefit in the future. I would like to conclude with three observations around this:

• First and foremost it would be good to have a real competitor for Apple. Windows Phone is a good first step, Android certainly isn't. Thrown into the market by Google because they can, it now starts showing the same grueling compatibility issues as we know so well from Symbian. However, some of the Apple business model aspects, such as the complete control on application approval are beginning to irritate quite a few big brands in the market so there is room and opportunity for a new player.
• Secondly, it would be great to continue seeing great products coming out of Apple. The joy and delight they bring everywhere in the world for people from all ages and backgrounds is nothing short of amazing.
• Last but not least, it would be great to understand what makes Apple so great and what we can learn from this in terms of UI design, digital business models and digital hardware.

In the mean time I wish Steve a good recovery. I hope he will realize that a great leader is even greater if others can stand on his shoulders.

Matthieu Vermeulen – Managing Director iconmobile France